Climate Change, Economic Development, and Environmental Vulnerability: Evidence from India

Abstract

India's rapid economic development has proceeded alongside growing exposure to climate-related hazards, raising the question of whether growth is reducing or compounding environmental vulnerability. This review synthesises evidence on the relationship between climate change, economic development, and environmental vulnerability in India, drawing on the Council on Energy, Environment and Water's district-level Climate Vulnerability Index (2021), national disaster and land-use data, and the policy architecture built around the National Action Plan on Climate Change and India's Nationally Determined Contributions. The evidence shows a striking paradox: more than 80 per cent of Indians live in districts vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters, and 27 of India's 35 states and union territories are classified as highly vulnerable, even as the economy has grown rapidly and per-capita incomes have risen. Vulnerability is concentrated in states such as Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Bihar, and is driven substantially by land-use and landscape change — deforestation, wetland loss, and unplanned construction — that has often accompanied, rather than been prevented by, economic expansion. The review examines the channels linking growth and vulnerability, surveys India's adaptation and disaster-risk-reduction policy response, and identifies priority areas — climate risk-informed planning, landscape restoration, and adaptive social protection — for reconciling continued economic development with reduced environmental vulnerability.